The ongoing conflict in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas has been a source of tension and violence since 2014. The area, which includes the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, has been the site of intense fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists. Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements, the conflict has continued to simmer, with periodic flare-ups of violence.
In recent months, Ukraine has adopted a new strategy in its approach to the Donbas conflict: retreat slowly and maximize Russian losses. This strategy, which has been dubbed “creeping de-occupation” by Ukrainian officials, involves gradually pulling back Ukrainian forces from the front lines while inflicting maximum damage on Russian-backed separatist forces.
The rationale behind this strategy is twofold. First, Ukraine’s military is vastly outnumbered and outgunned by the Russian-backed separatists, who receive support from Moscow in the form of weapons, funding, and military advisors. By retreating slowly and avoiding direct confrontations with the separatists, Ukrainian forces can minimize their own casualties and conserve their limited resources.
At the same time, by inflicting heavy losses on the separatists, Ukraine aims to increase the costs of Russia’s intervention in the conflict. The Kremlin has invested significant resources in supporting the separatists in Donbas, and any increase in casualties or setbacks for the separatist forces could potentially lead to a reassessment of Russia’s strategy in the region.
There are risks associated with this strategy, of course. By retreating from territory in Donbas, Ukraine risks ceding ground to the separatists and losing control over key population centers and economic resources. However, Ukrainian officials argue that the benefits of this strategy outweigh the costs, as it allows them to avoid direct confrontation with a superior military force while still inflicting significant damage on their adversaries.
The creeping de-occupation strategy has already shown some success. In recent months, Ukrainian forces have pulled back from several frontline positions in Donbas, while launching successful counterattacks that have inflicted heavy losses on the separatists. The Ukrainian military has also implemented a series of reforms and improvements to its training and equipment, which have helped to strengthen its position in the conflict.
Overall, Ukraine’s Donbas strategy of retreating slowly and maximizing Russian losses represents a calculated and pragmatic approach to a complex and volatile situation. By avoiding direct confrontation with a superior military force and focusing on attrition and asymmetrical warfare, Ukraine hopes to gradually erode the separatists’ military capabilities and increase the costs of Russia’s intervention in the conflict. Only time will tell if this strategy will ultimately lead to a resolution of the conflict in Donbas, but for now, it appears to be a viable and potentially effective approach for Ukraine.